It took me a while to engage with this debate, and to properly get my head around the issues. But now that I have, I feel very strongly that staying in the EU is the best course for both the UK and for the EU.
I was first struck with the desperate need to try to persuade people of the wisdom of voting remain, but then I realised that people are wanting to vote leave for so many different reasons. The oldies want to return to the good old days; the working class think that immigrants are stealing their jobs and pushing down wages; patriotic types just love Britain like they love the Queen. It is a complex problem, and there is no easy argument.
Here is what I have concluded on various points under debate
Others seem to think that we'll close UK borders completely. Is that even possible? And why does the thought keep reminding me of Germany in 1939?
The official line is that they will introduce a 'genuine points-based immigration system in which the possession of suitable skills is a key element'. See above for the problem with this plan. One of the biggest annoyances I have with their plan is that they will be able to deport criminals. If the UK had any kind of well-funded and well-planned border control, surely criminals who'd offended before arriving would never have been let in.
Another thing that irks me is that they seem to want to still encourage immigration from Commonwealth countries, implying that there is good immigration and bad immigration. Let's see how many countries stay Commonwealth if Britain leaves the EU.
As an Australian, having grown up in a big country with lots of space, the UK seems over-populated. When I started thinking about the referendum, I was of the mind that yes, there are too many people in the UK putting too much pressure on public services, and that immigration needs to slow down - but that leaving the EU was not the way to achieve this.
During the campaign, however, people who know their stuff have said that actually, the additional population paying tax helps to expand public services, and that supply should naturally meet demand. The problem is that the Tories have been squeezing public services for a long time now. People have also said that immigration is helping to offset an ageing UK population in economic terms. It seems that immigration is good, not just for diversity.
The Leave camp think they can 'negotiate a a new settlement with the EU, including a UK-EU free trade deal, by the next general election in May 2020'. Which will presumably be how they'll avoid playing by the EU rules of free movement, regulation, and tariffs. The EU will never agree to this.
A newly separated UK could then go on to 'take back its seat on the World Trade Organization, becoming a more influential force for free trade and friendly cooperation' and 'immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals with emerging economies and the world’s biggest economies (the US, China and Japan, as well as Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and so on)'. Too bad the US has already said they're not interested.
I can see a lot of backs turned on the UK as far as trade is concerned.
The idea that the UK is not in control of its destiny is a fairly terrifyingly well-crafted myth created by the Leavers, but there is a kernel of truth to it. The EU is essentially a socialist beast, and it seems that Britain is sick of sharing. So it wants to trying going it alone.
The uglier side of this point is that there seems to be a lot of people out there who have some possibly historically-based belief that Britain is superior to other countries. That seems to me to be behind a lot of the Leave camp's assertions that other countries will want to trade with them, and that the EU will be itching to strike lots of deals with them. I think this belief is mistaken. Britain does not lead a charmed life. It is not special. It is increasingly irrelevant in a world that no longer measures its successes by how many countries it can invade and occupy, or 'beat' in world wars.
And taking this idea to the extreme makes me afraid to stay in a country that is effectively considering closing its borders in an attempt to repel diversity. This campaign has somehow made it acceptable to speak out against immigrants, pitting working class against elite, and young against old. The simmering hate and negativity of extreme right-wingers (BNP and UKIP) has been given an outlet - licence to use the EU as a scapegoat for all of the UK's problems.
The fearmongering about the Euro being forced on us is a bit ridiculous. And even if they do try to force it on us, can't we choose to leave at that point?
I don't understand economics, but I believe people who do, and the UK is going to get broken. The pound is already going up and down as the leave/remain tide turns. It ain't going to be pretty.
Does the Leave camp really want to discourage immigration by making the UK thoroughly undesirable for everyone?
The EU was founded as a result of WWII, with the noble aim of peace and co-operation, and no more fighting. It has also protected countries from themselves by enforcing regulation for its own good. It has achieved what it set out to achieve.
Yes, it's large and unwieldy, is apparently corrupt, didn't deal with Greece well, is stuck in the past, and probably needs reform in a lot of ways. So work on reforming it. If all member states speak out, they can't help but listen. Talk to each other!
It almost feels like the Leave camp is trying to teach the EU a lesson by withdrawing the UK's almighty power and influence. Like the UK has been doing the EU a favour all this time by deigning to be a part of it. I don't want to be left with the Tories in charge with no checks on their behaviour.
I think that given tensions with massive numbers of refugees and a poorly performing Euro, there is a very good chance that if the UK leaves the EU it will slowly disintegrate. And that's bad. The EU needs to be united in order to hold off Russia (why is Putin supporting the UK leaving?!) and others who might think they can just march over borders.
There's probably a lot to be said about the power of trading as a large organisation, but I don't pretend to understand how it works.
It seems that England (rather than Scotland, Wales, and NI) is the heart of the Leave way of thinking. Wales seems to have a well co-ordinated Remain campaign, and it seems clear that Scotland is keen to remain, to the point of holding a second referendum for independence if the vote goes wrong. It seems like England is back to its old superiority over Scotland, Wales, and everyone else. It infuriates me.
In my reading, I think I've persuaded myself that the world will not end if the UK does vote Leave, because the sensible people won't let it. But I can't shake the impending sense of doom that so many people want to move backwards to an insular, selfish, self-important way of life.
I was first struck with the desperate need to try to persuade people of the wisdom of voting remain, but then I realised that people are wanting to vote leave for so many different reasons. The oldies want to return to the good old days; the working class think that immigrants are stealing their jobs and pushing down wages; patriotic types just love Britain like they love the Queen. It is a complex problem, and there is no easy argument.
Here is what I have concluded on various points under debate
Immigration
It seems to me that a lot of people in the Leave camp think that if the UK leaves the EU, immigration will magically disappear. Or at the very least, that being out of the EU is the only way to have any impact on it.
Some of those people think that if we 'introduce' an Australian points system, that fewer people from the EU will migrate to the UK. I think that's rubbish, as a lot of people from the EU will be skilled and resourced enough to accrue enough points. And anyway, a points system already exists for immigrants outside the EU.Others seem to think that we'll close UK borders completely. Is that even possible? And why does the thought keep reminding me of Germany in 1939?
The official line is that they will introduce a 'genuine points-based immigration system in which the possession of suitable skills is a key element'. See above for the problem with this plan. One of the biggest annoyances I have with their plan is that they will be able to deport criminals. If the UK had any kind of well-funded and well-planned border control, surely criminals who'd offended before arriving would never have been let in.
Another thing that irks me is that they seem to want to still encourage immigration from Commonwealth countries, implying that there is good immigration and bad immigration. Let's see how many countries stay Commonwealth if Britain leaves the EU.
As an Australian, having grown up in a big country with lots of space, the UK seems over-populated. When I started thinking about the referendum, I was of the mind that yes, there are too many people in the UK putting too much pressure on public services, and that immigration needs to slow down - but that leaving the EU was not the way to achieve this.
During the campaign, however, people who know their stuff have said that actually, the additional population paying tax helps to expand public services, and that supply should naturally meet demand. The problem is that the Tories have been squeezing public services for a long time now. People have also said that immigration is helping to offset an ageing UK population in economic terms. It seems that immigration is good, not just for diversity.
Trade
The Leave camp think they can 'negotiate a a new settlement with the EU, including a UK-EU free trade deal, by the next general election in May 2020'. Which will presumably be how they'll avoid playing by the EU rules of free movement, regulation, and tariffs. The EU will never agree to this.
A newly separated UK could then go on to 'take back its seat on the World Trade Organization, becoming a more influential force for free trade and friendly cooperation' and 'immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals with emerging economies and the world’s biggest economies (the US, China and Japan, as well as Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and so on)'. Too bad the US has already said they're not interested.
I can see a lot of backs turned on the UK as far as trade is concerned.
'Sovereignty' vs dangerous nationalism
The idea that the UK is not in control of its destiny is a fairly terrifyingly well-crafted myth created by the Leavers, but there is a kernel of truth to it. The EU is essentially a socialist beast, and it seems that Britain is sick of sharing. So it wants to trying going it alone.
The uglier side of this point is that there seems to be a lot of people out there who have some possibly historically-based belief that Britain is superior to other countries. That seems to me to be behind a lot of the Leave camp's assertions that other countries will want to trade with them, and that the EU will be itching to strike lots of deals with them. I think this belief is mistaken. Britain does not lead a charmed life. It is not special. It is increasingly irrelevant in a world that no longer measures its successes by how many countries it can invade and occupy, or 'beat' in world wars.
And taking this idea to the extreme makes me afraid to stay in a country that is effectively considering closing its borders in an attempt to repel diversity. This campaign has somehow made it acceptable to speak out against immigrants, pitting working class against elite, and young against old. The simmering hate and negativity of extreme right-wingers (BNP and UKIP) has been given an outlet - licence to use the EU as a scapegoat for all of the UK's problems.
Economy and currency
The fearmongering about the Euro being forced on us is a bit ridiculous. And even if they do try to force it on us, can't we choose to leave at that point?
I don't understand economics, but I believe people who do, and the UK is going to get broken. The pound is already going up and down as the leave/remain tide turns. It ain't going to be pretty.
Does the Leave camp really want to discourage immigration by making the UK thoroughly undesirable for everyone?
The EU as an institution
The EU was founded as a result of WWII, with the noble aim of peace and co-operation, and no more fighting. It has also protected countries from themselves by enforcing regulation for its own good. It has achieved what it set out to achieve.
Yes, it's large and unwieldy, is apparently corrupt, didn't deal with Greece well, is stuck in the past, and probably needs reform in a lot of ways. So work on reforming it. If all member states speak out, they can't help but listen. Talk to each other!
It almost feels like the Leave camp is trying to teach the EU a lesson by withdrawing the UK's almighty power and influence. Like the UK has been doing the EU a favour all this time by deigning to be a part of it. I don't want to be left with the Tories in charge with no checks on their behaviour.
I think that given tensions with massive numbers of refugees and a poorly performing Euro, there is a very good chance that if the UK leaves the EU it will slowly disintegrate. And that's bad. The EU needs to be united in order to hold off Russia (why is Putin supporting the UK leaving?!) and others who might think they can just march over borders.
There's probably a lot to be said about the power of trading as a large organisation, but I don't pretend to understand how it works.
England vs the UK
It seems that England (rather than Scotland, Wales, and NI) is the heart of the Leave way of thinking. Wales seems to have a well co-ordinated Remain campaign, and it seems clear that Scotland is keen to remain, to the point of holding a second referendum for independence if the vote goes wrong. It seems like England is back to its old superiority over Scotland, Wales, and everyone else. It infuriates me.
In my reading, I think I've persuaded myself that the world will not end if the UK does vote Leave, because the sensible people won't let it. But I can't shake the impending sense of doom that so many people want to move backwards to an insular, selfish, self-important way of life.
